China and India Compete for Shrinking Russian Oil Discounts

Chinese Independents Swap Iranian Risk for Russian Supply / PHOTO: Amnons Business Report

(BEIJING, CHINA) – Chinese oil refiners are turning to Russian crude supplies as the security of Middle Eastern shipments weakens. Independent processing plants in China have increased their purchases of Russian oil, even though the price advantage has narrowed, according to trading sources cited by Reuters.

During a brief pause in military action involving the United States and Iran, some independent Chinese refiners made unusual purchases of non-sanctioned Middle Eastern crude. These barrels were secured with significant price reductions at a time when exports rose sharply. However, that flow has now become unreliable. The resumption of attacks and the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have put supplies via this vital passage at risk once more.

Faced with this instability, Chinese processors have moved to secure more barrels from their largest supplier, Russia. Traders reported that they have also restarted discussions about buying Iranian oil. Two large Chinese refining firms, buying cargoes for delivery in September, have purchased the bulk of Russian ESPO Blend crude loading from the Pacific port of Kozmino, according to three trading sources.

The cargoes were sold at a discount of between USD 1 and USD 3 per barrel against the ICE Brent benchmark price. For context, the discount for ESPO crude delivered in August stood at around USD 4 per barrel, roughly equivalent to GBP 3.15. A narrower discount means a higher effective price for the buyer.

Steady demand from India, another major buyer of Russian oil, is supporting price levels. The head of Indian company Bharat Petroleum Corp stated on Thursday that the firm increased the amount of Russian crude it processed in the June quarter. The executive noted that traders are no longer offering price reductions on Russian feedstock.

A trader at a Chinese refining company explained the shift in strategy simply. “Given the uncertainty in the Middle East, ESPO crude is a more dependable choice, and also less expensive,” the source said.

The global oil market is adjusting to a redrawing of trade routes. The security premium associated with Middle Eastern supply has made predictable delivery a key factor in purchasing decisions.

For Chinese independent refiners, the decision to accept smaller discounts on Russian oil reflects a calculation that reliability now outweighs the opportunity to chase cheaper but riskier cargoes from the Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical checkpoint for global energy, and any threat to its operation pushes buyers toward origins perceived as more stable, even if that comes at a higher cost.

Prices for Russian grades have firmed as a direct result. The shrinking discount on ESPO crude signals that the market is pricing in the logistical and political risks of alternative supplies.

With Indian processors also showing no sign of reducing their intake, the competition for Russian barrels is keeping the market balanced in favour of the seller. Chinese refiners are not simply responding to price signals; they are managing supply chain risk in a period of open conflict affecting major shipping lanes.

The broader implications touch on trade finance and shipping insurance. Cargoes passing through high risk zones attract higher war risk premiums, which can erase any headline discount on the crude itself.

In prioritising the shorter sea route from Russia’s Far Eastern port of Kozmino, Chinese buyers are also reducing the time their cargoes spend at sea, lowering both insurance costs and exposure to geopolitical disruptions. This practical advantage adds a layer of financial logic to the shift beyond the simple barrel price comparison.

The movement of crude from Russia to China has become one of the defining features of the current energy trade. What began as a response to sanctions has matured into a structural feature of Asian supply.

The latest developments show that regional security crises can accelerate this trend, pushing buyers further along a path they are already travelling. Chinese independent refiners, often operating with thinner margins than their state owned counterparts, are proving highly sensitive to the physical security of supply.

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