(Kampala) – Friday’s session in the foreign exchange market had all the excitement of a rainy Sunday afternoon in Kabale. The Ugandan shilling, still doing what it does best—hanging around without much ambition—remained firmly planted in the 3710/3720 range.
The remittance flows, which Ugandans abroad reliably send back home like the disciplined children they are, provided just enough to cover the corporate demand.
The tight liquidity conditions—financially speaking, it is like your village Christmas budget after the endless WhatsApp group requests for school fees—remained dominant throughout the day. Absa’s market experts reported that overnight yields were keeping it steady at an average of 11.06%. That is about as stable as a boda boda squeezing between two taxis, nothing too dramatic, just enough to keep you on edge.
And just as Ugandans were starting to enjoy the calm, mid month tax remittances are expected to start rolling in during the coming week. These are likely to keep things spicy in the short term money markets, like the sudden arrival of relatives at your home right before Christmas. The yields are likely to stay elevated for a bit—think of it like the excitement of getting through the festive season with a little extra left in your wallet, only for URA to knock on your door right after the New Year.
Meanwhile, the government has decided to take a back seat this coming week—no auction for government securities has been scheduled. It seems like the powers that be have decided to relax, probably planning to focus on their next game of political chess rather than giving us the usual entertainment of scrambling for government bonds.
So, what does this all mean for the average Ugandan? Well, if you are expecting dramatic fluctuations, you might be better off waiting for the next KCCA road construction project to finish—because much like our roads, the shilling is not moving anytime soon.
