Uganda’s mineral wealth is a blessing—but without President Museveni’s steady leadership, it could become a curse. His refusal to export unprocessed minerals and his insistence on value addition have shielded the country from the chaos seen in other resource-rich African nations.
Beneath Uganda’s soil lies a treasure trove of oil, gold, copper, cobalt, rare earth elements, and iron ore. But history has shown that mineral wealth alone does not guarantee prosperity. In fact, in many African countries, it has brought the opposite: conflict, corruption, and economic collapse.
The so-called “resource curse” has haunted nations like the Democratic Republic of Congo and Nigeria, where vast mineral deposits have fueled foreign interference, internal strife, and elite capture. Uganda, however, has taken a different path—one defined by caution, foresight, and national interest. At the heart of this approach is President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, whose leadership has been the firewall between Uganda’s mineral potential and the chaos that has engulfed others.
President Museveni’s stance on mineral governance is clear and uncompromising. “We will not export unprocessed minerals, as this undermines our economy,” he declared in August 2025 while commissioning the $200 million Wagagai Gold Refinery in Busia. This was not just a policy statement—it was a declaration of economic independence. By banning the export of raw minerals, Museveni has forced investors to build processing plants, create jobs, and transfer technology. The result is a growing industrial base that adds value to Uganda’s resources before they leave the country. The Abyssinia Group’s steel plant in Jinja, which plans to use local iron ore from Kigezi, is another example of this strategy in action.
This approach stands in stark contrast to what has happened elsewhere. In the DRC, decades of unregulated mineral exports have enriched warlords and foreign corporations while leaving ordinary Congolese in poverty. Nigeria’s oil wealth, instead of lifting the nation, has fueled corruption, environmental degradation, and regional unrest. These countries lacked the kind of leadership that prioritizes national interest over short-term gains. Uganda, under Museveni, has avoided these pitfalls by building institutions, enforcing regulation, and demanding accountability from investors.
The stakes are high. Uganda’s first oil is expected to flow by 2027, with annual revenues projected at $2 billion (UGX 6.9 trillion). This windfall could fund schools, hospitals, roads, and science parks. But it could also become a magnet for corruption and foreign manipulation if not managed wisely. Museveni understands this risk. That is why his government has established the Petroleum Authority of Uganda and the National Oil Company to oversee exploration, production, and revenue management. The Public Finance Management Act was amended to create the Petroleum Fund, ensuring that oil revenues are transparently accounted for and used for development.
Beyond oil, Uganda’s mineral sector is attracting global attention. Rare earth elements in eastern Uganda, critical for green technologies and defense industries, have drawn interest from China, the U.S., and the EU. Gold remains one of Uganda’s top exports, but Museveni has warned against illicit financial flows and money laundering that threaten the sector’s integrity. His insistence on local refining and traceability is a safeguard against the shadowy networks that have destabilized other mineral-rich states.
This strategic posture is now enshrined in the NRM Manifesto 2026–2031, which outlines a bold plan to “protect the gains” and make a “qualitative leap into high middle-income status”. The manifesto commits to expanding industrial capacity, strengthening mineral governance, and ensuring that resource wealth translates into tangible benefits for all Ugandans. It is not just a campaign document—it is a blueprint for national transformation. As President Museveni stated during the launch, “The manifesto is not just paper. It is a plan of action. We are committing ourselves to building on what has been achieved and addressing the gaps that remain in our society”.
But this delicate balance could be shattered if Uganda were to lose Museveni’s leadership. His challengers, though vocal, lack the experience, networks, and geopolitical acumen to navigate the complex terrain of resource governance. Managing oil and minerals is not just about economics—it’s about diplomacy, security, and long-term planning. A misstep could invite foreign meddling, ignite regional tensions, or collapse investor confidence. Uganda cannot afford that risk.
Museveni’s leadership has also ensured that mineral wealth benefits ordinary Ugandans. Programs like the Parish Development Model and Emyooga are channeling resources to local communities, empowering them to participate in the value chain. Artisanal miners are being formalized, trained, and integrated into cooperatives. The government is investing in geological surveys, vocational training, and environmental safeguards to ensure that mining is sustainable and inclusive.
Critics may argue that it is time for change. But change without continuity is chaos. The mineral sector is still in its infancy. Oil has not yet started flowing. Refineries are still being built. The legal and institutional frameworks are still being tested. This is not the time to experiment with untested leadership. It is the time to consolidate gains, deepen reforms, and stay the course.
President Museveni has proven that he can hold the country together, even under immense pressure. He has steered Uganda through regional conflicts, global recessions, and pandemics without compromising national sovereignty. His ability to balance competing interests—between investors and communities, between development and conservation, between local needs and global pressures—is unmatched. That is the kind of leadership Uganda needs to avoid the resource curse.
As the 2026 elections approach, Ugandans must ask themselves a simple question: who can be trusted to manage the country’s mineral wealth responsibly? Who has the track record, the vision, and the discipline to ensure that oil and minerals become a blessing, not a curse? The answer is clear. President Museveni is not just a candidate—he is a shield against the chaos that has consumed other nations. Voting for him is not just a political choice—it is a patriotic duty.
Uganda’s future is bright, but only if it is protected. The minerals beneath our feet are valuable, but the wisdom to manage them is even more precious. Let us not gamble with our destiny. Let us choose stability, experience, and vision. Let us choose President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni.
The writer is the Deputy Resident City Commissioner for Nakawa Division.
