At the current pace of battle, Russia would need centuries and tens of millions of casualties to fully occupy Ukraine, according to a detailed analysis by military expert David Axe published in Forbes. Despite gaining approximately 68 square miles of Ukrainian territory in April, the Russian forces paid a steep price—losing around 4,800 vehicles and suffering over 36,600 troops either dead or wounded, based on data primarily sourced from Ukrainian military records.
Ukraine spans about 233,000 square miles, and only 19 percent is currently under Russian occupation. At this rate, Russia would need until the year 2256 to take the rest of the country, with a horrifying projection of 101 million military casualties. For context, Russia’s current population stands at roughly 144 million.
Incredibly, these catastrophic losses have not broken the back of the Russian military. According to General Christopher Cavoli, commander of United States Army Forces in Europe, the Russian military presence in Ukraine has grown, now numbering at least 600,000 troops—twice the size of the initial invasion force in February 2022. Russia recruits approximately 30,000 new troops per month, with many of the wounded eventually returning to the front.
The Kremlin is managing this recruitment drive with financial incentives and public narratives that falsely suggest the war is close to ending. Enlistment bonuses are reportedly attractive, and optimism is being peddled to justify what has become one of the most costly and illogical invasions in modern history. Analyst Janis Kluge of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs stated that this combination of money and manipulated morale has kept the war machine grinding on.
Despite this, there are signs of economic strain. Russia’s defence budget now consumes 40 percent of all government spending—its highest since the Cold War. For comparison, the United States allocates just 13 percent of its federal budget to military expenditure. Cavoli noted that defence spending has fuelled Russia’s industrial base and temporarily lowered unemployment to 2.4 percent. However, this war-time economy is not sustainable in the long term.
As oil prices fall and Ukrainian drone strikes hurt Russian energy infrastructure, national revenue is shrinking. The Russian dictator has responded by increasing personal and corporate taxes and shifting state priorities heavily towards war-related industries. Analyst Alexander Kalaned of the Center for European Policy Analysis noted that this signals a regime willing to sacrifice long-term economic stability for military delusions.
Russia’s strategy, however, has done little to reduce Ukrainian resistance. Ukraine continues to adapt. One notable success has been the use of MI8 and MI24 helicopters to shoot down Russian Shahed-136 drones at low altitudes, offering a far cheaper alternative to missile defence systems.
Meanwhile, the civilian toll has sharply increased. A United Nations report highlighted that since ceasefire talks began in February, Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities have killed or injured more civilians than in the same period a year earlier. In the first 24 days of April alone, 848 civilians were killed or wounded—a 46 percent rise. Analysts attribute this spike to Russia’s strategy of intensifying attacks during negotiations to gain leverage.
Despite these brutal tactics, international partnerships continue to strengthen Ukraine’s position. A newly signed US-Ukraine investment fund agreement focuses on long-term reconstruction and deepens strategic economic ties. It includes provisions for indefinite cooperation, with a 10-year review clause. A White House official stressed this deal reflects the US commitment to Ukraine as a true ally—not merely for critical minerals but for peace and security.
