Europe’s balmy beaches and bustling city cafés may offer a final taste of tranquillity this summer, according to German military historian Professor Sönke Neitzel. Speaking in an interview with Bild, the Potsdam University academic warned that Russia could strike Lithuania and perhaps other Nato states as early as autumn 2025. He noted that joint Russian and Belarussian military drills, dubbed Zapad 2025, may serve as a cover for offensive troop deployments, repeating a pattern seen before the full‑scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Neitzel underscored a weakening of deterrence, pointing to frictions between Washington and Brussels and questioning whether Nato’s Article 5 remains sacrosanct for the United States. He argued that any ambitions by the Russian dictator to expand aggression beyond Ukraine hinge on Nato’s unity, European resolve and whether Ukraine secures lasting peace.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has voiced similar concerns, warning that exercises in Belarus could mask preparations for new attacks against Ukraine or its neighbours. His Commander‑in‑Chief, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, described how “visible” drills facilitate the secret movement and concentration of forces.
Intelligence assessments across Europe vary. Germany’s BND forecasts that Russia could field a large conventional war by 2030, while Lithuania’s VSD judges a full‑scale assault on Nato unlikely but warns of limited “tests” of Article 5. The Danish Defence Intelligence Service warns of a significant increase in Russia’s combat power over the next five years, backed by support from China, North Korea and Iran.
Meanwhile, Russia’s record defence budget continues to outstrip Europe’s. Its military spending reached $145.9 billion (£117 billion) in 2024, about 6.7 per cent of GDP. It is projected to hit $137 billion (£110 billion) in 2025, or over six per cent of GDP. By contrast, Europe’s combined defence expenditure was $457 billion (£366 billion) in 2024, though Russia’s spending in terms of purchasing‑power parity amounted to $461.6 billion (£369 billion), effectively matching the entire continent.
Despite warnings from the UK’s Admiral Sir Anthony Radakin that any Russian incursion against Nato would trigger an “overwhelming response,” and despite the alliance’s numerical advantages in troops, aircraft and naval forces, the prospect of an autumn offensive keeps European capitals on high alert. For holiday‑makers savouring that Parisian coffee or a late night on Ibiza, Neitzel’s warning may mean cherishing every moment of peace this summer.
