As Russian forces struggle to hold their ground in eastern Ukraine, particularly around the embattled town of Pokrovsk, signs are growing that Ukraine’s war machine is gathering momentum, powered by an increase in domestic artillery production and growing international support. Military analyst Jonathan MS Pearce, of ATP Geopolitics, says Ukraine’s battlefield position is improving, even if the overall picture remains complex.
Pearce notes that while Russian troops continue to gain limited territory, they do so at an enormous cost. Ukraine, he argues, may benefit strategically from prolonging the war until Russian forces reach a breaking point, both economically and militarily. “Russia is hurting, and Ukraine is hurting too,” Pearce explains, “but Ukraine is showing signs of building something that could eventually tip the balance.”
One clear advantage is artillery. Ukrainian shell production has surged, with plans to produce up to three million shells this year. That is roughly fifty percent more than Russia’s estimated production of two million shells, which includes less sophisticated mortar bombs. Pearce highlights how Ukraine has narrowed what was once a ten-to-one Russian artillery advantage to a one-to-two ratio.
This shift is not just about numbers. Pearce describes how Ukraine’s military is gaining an edge in drone warfare, deploying more first-person view drones, attack drones, and reconnaissance systems than Russia in many areas of the front. These tools are reshaping the battlefield. Coupled with innovations in battlefield tactics and unit restructuring, Ukraine’s approach contrasts sharply with the Kremlin’s reliance on overwhelming numbers and attrition tactics.
Russia’s inability to consistently supply its forces with modern equipment is becoming increasingly evident. With stockpiles dwindling, Moscow is now turning to countries like North Korea for munitions. Pearce describes Russian units on the front line using outdated vehicles, including motorbikes and golf buggies, as further evidence of their growing material shortages.
Ukraine’s domestic military industry is also benefiting from a new model of support by international allies. European countries like Denmark have shifted from merely sending their own weapons to financing weapons production inside Ukraine. This not only strengthens Ukraine’s armed forces but also stimulates its economy. Pearce cites the Ukrainian-made 2S22 Bohdana artillery system, which is nearly half the cost of its Western equivalents. “You can buy two for the price of one Caesar gun from France,” he says.
This growing independence is further bolstered by private international support. Pro-Ukrainian movements online continue to counter Russian propaganda and raise funds for drones, medical equipment, and other vital supplies.
Despite Russia’s ongoing assaults, particularly in areas like Toretsk, Ukraine is striking back with well-timed offensives, putting pressure on Russian positions and regaining territory, albeit incrementally. Pearce underscores that even tactical retreats can be part of a larger strategy, especially if the cost of Russian advances becomes unsustainable for the Kremlin.
Pearce believes that time could be on Ukraine’s side—if support from the West continues and if Ukraine maintains its ability to produce and deploy its own weaponry at scale. While the road ahead is uncertain, Russia’s reliance on outdated strategies, ageing equipment, and an economy under strain suggest that the Ukrainian resistance has both the resilience and innovation to keep pushing forward.
