Despite grand parades, booming propaganda and performative unity with China, the grim reality is setting in across Russia. The war in Ukraine, which Russian dictator Vladimir Putin once believed would cement his image as a triumphant warrior, has devolved into a political and economic nightmare for the Kremlin.
Three years since Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, the Russian military has failed to make strategic progress. Front lines remain contested, and any minor gains have come at a devastating cost. An estimated 790,000 Russian troops have been killed, wounded or gone missing in action. By the end of 2025, this number could exceed one million.
In contrast to the divisions Russia expected to exploit, Ukrainian society has united in defiance. Bolstered by consistent Western military and financial backing, Ukraine has defied the Kremlin’s expectations. Innovative battlefield tactics have levelled the fight, pushing back Russia’s once-feared military force.
The Russian dictator’s hopes of using brute force to subdue Ukraine have collapsed. Attacks on civilian infrastructure have only strengthened the spirit of Ukrainian resistance. Meanwhile, Russia’s attempts to fracture European unity and sway the United States have largely failed.
The economic impact is now impossible for Putin to conceal. Real inflation in Russia is nearing 20 percent. Gross domestic product has flatlined. Falling oil and gas revenues – which prop up the state – are shrinking. Russia’s “war boom” has fizzled. Sanctions continue to choke the economy. Consumption is falling, and discontent is growing among ordinary Russians, who increasingly question whether this war is worth the cost.
Behind the Kremlin walls, whispers of succession have begun. Even Putin seems to sense the looming consequences of his failed gamble. Repressive measures no longer mask the country’s slow drift into apathy. Analysts note that Russia is not just losing militarily, but also diplomatically – shedding support even from countries once seen as neutral or sympathetic.
European Union defence ministers recently expressed deep doubts about Russia’s willingness to negotiate in good faith. Estonian Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur and Swedish counterpart Pål Jonson both warned that Putin remains locked in his original delusion of conquering Ukraine’s east and Crimea. Their joint position, echoed by several European officials, emphasised more arms and military aid for Ukraine to secure peace on its terms.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he had spoken with Donald Trump prior to the latter’s phone call with Putin, urging that no decision about Ukraine should be made without involving Kyiv. He reiterated that any peace based on Ukrainian troop withdrawals is unacceptable. If Moscow insists on such preconditions, Zelensky said, it proves the Kremlin does not seek peace, only surrender.
Behind closed doors, discussions continue about a potential high-level summit involving the United States, European Union, United Kingdom, Ukraine and Russia. Locations being considered include Turkey, the Vatican and Switzerland. But trust in Putin is running out, even among those once willing to listen.
Putin’s war has become a self-inflicted trap. Foreign Policy has reported Russia’s autocratic system is ill-suited to drawn-out wars, especially ones it cannot win.
