Russia’s only real chance of securing any form of victory in its war of aggression against Ukraine is the complete halting of Western military aid to Kyiv, according to analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The report highlights that the Russian military is suffering from growing losses, slowing advances, and increased dependence on untrained and poorly equipped infantry units.
Despite these mounting setbacks, the Russian dictator continues to rely on a mix of long range missile strikes, psychological pressure, and media manipulation to try and weaken the resolve of both Ukrainians and their international supporters. According to the ISW, the Kremlin is actively pushing exaggerated pessimism in the West, designed to portray support for Ukraine as futile and a Russian victory as inevitable.
In the past eight months alone, Russia has launched some of the largest drone and missile attacks since the full scale invasion began, including seven major strikes since January 2025. These operations, while deadly and destructive, are believed to be part of a broader strategy to damage morale and pressure Ukraine into giving up territory and sovereignty.
Experts say that Russian demands in public statements remain unchanged from the past three years. These include unacceptable concessions on Ukraine’s borders and future, ignoring the fact that the battlefield has drastically shifted since 2022. Russia has endured years of heavy losses in troops and equipment, which has eroded its capacity to effectively wage war, let alone conquer an independent and defiant Ukraine.
The ISW notes that these losses are why Russia is increasingly reliant on undertrained infantry and mobilised conscripts. Russian advances have slowed to a crawl in many sectors, undermining Moscow’s original aims. Despite these battlefield failures, the Russian dictator remains committed to using information warfare and global disinformation to obscure these realities.
Meanwhile, Western unity and continued military assistance are proving crucial in holding the line. The Kremlin’s propaganda campaign is targeted not just at Ukraine, but also at foreign governments and publics, seeking to sow doubt and division. ISW analysts warn that without consistent support from the West, Ukraine could face increasing difficulty defending its sovereignty.
In related remarks, US president Donald Trump said he is “unhappy” with the Russian dictator’s current conduct, despite having claimed to “always get along” with him. Trump, who has been criticised for his soft stance towards the Kremlin, acknowledged that the missile attacks and civilian deaths caused by Russian forces are unacceptable.
