Putin has likely rejected Trump’s ceasefire proposal — what now?

It looks like Russian President Vladimir Putin has rejected the 30-day ceasefire proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on the war against Ukraine. According to the Financial Times, citing an unnamed senior aide to Putin, Moscow does not want a temporary ceasefire and is pushing for a long-term peace settlement that will “take into account its interests and concerns.”

Trump promised tough action against Russia if it failed to engage in peace talks over Ukraine. He suggested escalating military support for Ukraine and imposing severe sanctions on Russia in response.

Keep in mind that when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky voiced similar skepticism about a temporary ceasefire and called for more substantive talks before pursuing long-term peace, he was harshly criticized. In that now-infamous Oval Office moment, Trump berated Zelensky for not being serious about peace, even threatening to cut military and intelligence support for Ukraine. This decision cost real lives.

So what will Trump do now?

Putin has just smashed the ball back into Trump’s court, and now the president is scrambling to keep the game going. His next move will be crucial in signaling to all parties, particularly Putin, whether Trump is really willing to use a “stick” approach against Russia.

Putin can smell weakness. He’s seen it throughout the negotiation process with Trump, who already gave away much of his negotiating leverage before any talks even began — promising Russia could keep all the territory it currently occupies, agreeing to no NATO membership for Ukraine, no security guarantees for Ukraine, and a quick lift on sanctions. Putin will likely exploit this weakness and Trump’s apparent desire to win Putin’s favor at Ukraine’s expense.

Putin’s modus operandi in negotiations, both on Ukraine and with the West, has always been to use talks as a leverage point to secure concessions. He sees negotiations as a way to probe for weaknesses and demand concessions. His instinct here will be to play hard to get, drag talks out to show strength, or imply that Russia doesn’t need a ceasefire — the other side is the one that really wants it.

The danger for Putin is that if he pushes too hard, drags things out too long, he risks angering Trump. The assumption here is that the U.S. would boost military support for Ukraine and increase sanctions on Russia. However, given that the Trump administration has thus far taken a carrot-and-stick approach — offering carrots to Russia and sticks to Ukraine — it’s unclear whether Trump has the resolve to really take on Putin.

If I have doubts, so does Putin, and he will likely test the U.S. position in these ceasefire talks. Understanding the Trump administration’s willingness to play hardball now will be useful for Putin later when more substantive talks begin.

Is Trump truly willing to play tough with Putin to secure peace in Ukraine?

Source: the Kyiv Independent.