On the eve of the anniversary of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the United States has entered talks with Russia to settle the war—without Kyiv’s involvement or consent.
Last month, it became increasingly apparent that U.S. President Donald Trump seeks a deal largely on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s terms.
Trump also seems to have aligned with many of the Kremlin’s views—not just on Ukraine and its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, but also on Europe’s future security order.
What’s more, Washington seems to be making common cause with Moscow by boosting the same illiberal European political movements and attacking the same European governments, most notably with the support U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance and social media titan Elon Musk have been giving the pro-Russian Alternative for Germany ahead of that country’s election on Sunday.
If this is any indication of Washington’s new trajectory, it would mark the most profound transformation of U.S. foreign policy since perhaps the 1940s. Ukraine and its long-suffering people would be the first victims of a new U.S.-Russia alignment, but the effects would reach far beyond the current war.
They include a redrawing of maps, a greater role for Russia in Europe’s affairs, and further fallout around the world as the United States reorders its great-power relationships and what’s left of its old alliances.
European governments are shockingly unprepared after decades’ worth of wakeup calls. It’s been almost four months since Trump’s election victory, yet they seemed to have no plan.
It’s also been three years since Russia’s 2022 invasion, a decade since Trump and his America First movement became a major political force, 11 years since Russia invaded and annexed Crimea, and probably half a century or more since Washington began prodding Europe to take greater responsibility for its own defense.
European governments are scrambling to hammer out a collective response, putting together emergency summits and assurances to Ukraine that it will not be abandoned.
The Trump administration has made its opening moves, and much is still in play. To help make sense of what may be an epochal breach in the West, we asked nine of our best thinkers what comes next.
