The so called May 9 truce declared by Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is not intended to end the war in Ukraine, according to a new assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Experts at the ISW say the Kremlin’s offer lacks key features such as clear terms and proper monitoring, making it another calculated move by Moscow to deceive and manipulate rather than a genuine attempt at peace.
The ISW stated that Putin’s temporary ceasefire is designed to serve Russia’s interests by creating confusion and gaining an upper hand in the war. The absence of agreed public terms and official oversight allows Russia to accuse Ukraine of violations without evidence, while continuing to plan or execute attacks under the cover of a truce. This tactic has been used before by Russian forces during the so called Easter truce, which saw continued aggression against Ukrainian positions.
The Kremlin’s goal, analysts believe, is not peace but tactical gain. By calling for unilateral truces with vague terms, Russia gains time for reconnaissance, resupply, and shelling of Ukrainian positions, while attempting to present itself internationally as seeking peace.
The ISW also warned that Russia has no interest in setting up a transparent and jointly agreed ceasefire process. Instead, Putin’s regime benefits from the ambiguity. The experts noted that such short term truces have also been used to strengthen internal control in temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine by the Russian military.
Despite the Kremlin’s claims of a peaceful gesture tied to the anniversary of victory in the Second World War, the ISW made it clear that Putin sees the so called truce as a tool for military and propaganda advantage, not as a move toward ending the conflict.
