The Kremlin was sent into a fresh fit of fury this week following Ukraine’s announcement of a landmark mineral agreement with the United States, triggering an irate response from the Russian dictator. As part of the new deal, Washington pledged closer cooperation in securing Ukraine’s critical mineral resources, vital for global supply chains and national security, particularly in the military sector.
The agreement, which includes commitments on infrastructure protection and post war reconstruction, was described by analysts as a bold show of support for Ukraine. The document explicitly labels the war as a full scale invasion by Russia, a shift in diplomatic language that has long been demanded by Kyiv and its allies. While the full value of the partnership has not been made public, parts of it outline a path to recovery potentially worth more than £800 billion (USD 1 trillion) over the coming years.
Global affairs expert and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, Michael Bociurkiw, stated that Ukraine remains key to international food and mineral supply chains. He warned that every missile strike on Odessa or other cities has ripple effects beyond Ukraine, potentially pushing African countries closer to famine due to supply disruptions.
At the same time, Bociurkiw noted that the deal sent a “very supportive” signal to Ukraine. It includes strong recognition of Kyiv’s sovereignty over its mineral wealth and the importance of ensuring these assets remain under Ukrainian control. Reconstruction efforts were also highlighted, with innovative funding methods proposed.
However, the optimism comes with caution. The volatile political climate in Washington, especially with former president Donald Trump’s unpredictable stance, means the deal could be undermined quickly. Trump has already attempted to twist the agreement into a political victory, claiming that Ukraine will repay hundreds of billions, though the actual figure sits closer to £149 billion (USD 186 billion).
Analysts have noted Trump’s desperation to frame the deal as a success. It provides him with ammunition for his domestic base, who are increasingly sceptical of foreign aid. Bociurkiw warned that nothing signed by Trump can be taken as final, and Ukraine is well aware of that.
Despite the agreement, Russia continues its barrage of attacks on Ukrainian cities. Bociurkiw believes the Kremlin will escalate efforts to seize territory before any deal solidifies. He described the Russian dictator’s actions as those of a regime unwilling to compromise, determined to sabotage Ukraine’s future by any means necessary.
In a related development, China’s recent decision to halt rare earth mineral exports has added urgency for the US to seek alternative sources, further highlighting Ukraine’s strategic value. Yet, the war complicates extraction efforts, especially in territories currently under illegal Russian occupation.
Notably absent from the US Ukraine document is any mention of American control over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest, which remains illegally occupied by Russian forces. This deliberate omission appears aimed at reinforcing Ukrainian sovereignty while avoiding controversial commitments.
The future path to rebuilding Ukraine will be massive. With damage estimated to reach over £800 billion (USD 1 trillion), the country faces monumental tasks: restoring infrastructure, bringing home millions of displaced citizens, and rooting out corruption. Western investors are also pressing Kyiv to clean up its judiciary and improve media freedom, both of which have suffered during wartime.
