Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has publicly raised the issue of a potential successor for the first time, signalling a subtle yet strategic shift within the Kremlin’s inner circles. Speaking cryptically, he hinted that several candidates could be selected, followed by what he described as a sort of “casting” process. This unexpected admission comes after the March 2024 presidential elections, which were widely perceived as cementing Putin’s grip on power for years to come.
However, as Ukrainian political analyst Vadym Denysenko explains, the topic of succession has long been an unspoken taboo in Russian politics. Despite this, the elite have quietly been preparing for the eventual transfer of power. The current transition logic revolves not around ideology or democracy, but a behind the scenes redistribution of assets and control. At the heart of this redistribution are seven powerful families—Chemezov, Patrushev, Kiriyenko, Rotenberg, Kovalchuk, Sechin, and Kadyrov. These clans are emerging as Russia’s new power elite. Interestingly, while the Chemezov-Patrushev alliance remains dominant, Patrushev has reportedly lost influence over the security services.
The latest trigger in this successor drama appears to be Putin’s special envoy Kirill Dmitriev. His close ties to Putin’s daughter have sparked speculation about his role as a potential family candidate. Yet Dmitriev has also faced backlash from the old guard, indicating internal resistance to his rise. Denysenko cautions that it is premature to label him as a serious contender.
Meanwhile, public concern about succession is growing. Surveys show that more than half of Russians fear Putin may die without naming a successor, and around a third believe a successor exists but is being kept hidden for now. Still, these concerns appear to be irrelevant to Putin, who shows little regard for public sentiment. According to analysts, the recent comments are not about genuine succession planning but about testing loyalty within his inner circle and manipulating power dynamics.
Putin, it seems, is not preparing to hand over power. Instead, he is reaffirming his role as the final arbiter. Analysts believe the talk of a successor is either the result of growing paranoia or a political ruse to prompt elites to beg him to stay in office. The Russian dictator’s approach is more theatre than transition, a performance designed to reinforce his dominance and flush out disloyalty.
Behind the spectacle is a grim reality. Russia lacks any ideology beyond the warped notion of a “Russian world”, and nearly all of its citizens, even the apolitical ones, are caught up in it. This absence of democratic values leaves the future of Russia dangerously anchored to one man’s personal ambitions and manipulative tactics.
