Russia is continuing to suffer significant losses in its war against Ukraine, but Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is allegedly exaggerating the size and strength of his military in a calculated effort to pressure Ukraine during delicate ceasefire negotiations, according to a new report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
On 13 May, Putin claimed that between 50,000 and 60,000 individuals were voluntarily joining the Russian army each month. He presented this figure as proof that Russia is significantly out-recruiting Ukraine. However, ISW analysts believe that this number may be inflated in order to project an image of overwhelming Russian strength to intimidate both Ukraine and Western negotiators.
The ISW highlights that Russian battlefield losses remain extremely high and are now at levels similar to those seen during the intense autumn offensives in 2024. Despite these setbacks, the Kremlin is believed to be rapidly filling the gaps by rushing undertrained new recruits to the front lines.
Many of these fresh troops receive just a single month of basic training before being sent into battle. This limited preparation significantly weakens their effectiveness in combat and reduces Russia’s ability to carry out complex military operations. ISW reports that these ill-prepared soldiers are increasingly used in exhausting infantry assaults, aimed more at overwhelming Ukrainian forces with human waves than at achieving strategic gains.
This tactic appears to be part of a broader psychological campaign designed to wear down Ukraine’s resistance and push the West towards concessions. The ongoing deployment of such recruits indicates that Putin is focused on creating the illusion of military dominance rather than building sustainable combat capabilities.
Meanwhile, the European Union is readying what it describes as “powerful and large scale” sanctions against Russia should it sabotage current ceasefire discussions. French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné warned on 12 May that the EU will act decisively if the talks fail due to Kremlin intransigence.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyi of Ukraine stated that if the upcoming negotiations in Istanbul do not lead to a ceasefire, the effort will be seen as a failure and proof that Russia is not serious about diplomacy.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has been involved in efforts to broker peace, urging Russian agreement to a 30 day ceasefire during a recent call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Meanwhile, Austria has offered Vienna as a neutral location for further peace talks, according to Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer.
Despite these diplomatic overtures, the Kremlin appears more focused on projecting strength through numbers, however inflated, than on genuine engagement.
