Russia and Belarus are preparing a sweeping joint military exercise named Zapad 2025 near the Polish border. Slated for mid-September, the event raises serious concerns among Ukraine, NATO allies, and European neighbours, with memories still fresh of similar exercises preceding Russia’s full invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The Zapad drills, meaning “West” in Russian, were confirmed by the Belarusian regime’s Defence Ministry in February and later expanded upon by the Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko in April. The dictator announced that Russian troops would participate despite being heavily engaged in the ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Over 13,000 personnel are expected to be involved. Belarus, however, has not yet confirmed which international observers, if any, will be invited.
The Zapad exercises have typically occurred biennially since 2009. The 2021 version saw 200,000 troops, 290 tanks, and 15 warships training across Belarus and western Russia. That operation was later seen as a precursor to Russia’s February 2022 assault on Ukraine. With Zapad 2025 looming, fears are mounting that Moscow could once again be using military drills as cover for preparations of a new attack.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has openly warned that Zapad 2025 may mask a Russian move toward NATO territory. Speaking in April, he noted Russia’s history of launching new offensives following drills. Ukraine’s top military commander Oleksandr Syrskyi added that such exercises often serve as a way to quietly relocate troops and equipment in preparation for offensive action.
Russia is also reportedly deploying up to 150,000 troops to Belarus, strengthening its military presence across the region. These movements, revealed during February’s Munich Security Conference, suggest long-term escalation plans beyond Ukraine.
A recent report by Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service supported this view, stating Russia is preparing for the possibility of a full European war within the next five years. Although the Kremlin has not formally decided to engage NATO, it is actively building the capability to do so. Should the war in Ukraine reach a pause or ceasefire, Russia could strike another neighbour within months.
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reports Russian forces are expanding military infrastructure near Finland’s border, including new army headquarters in Petrozavodsk. Simultaneously, Moscow continues increasing weapons production, developing advanced autonomous drones, and overhauling transport networks to support rapid military mobilisation.
The Kremlin has also boosted military recruitment by offering sign-on bonuses up to $20,000 (approximately £15,600) and increasing veteran benefits. Analysts estimate around 30,000 to 40,000 Russians are enlisting every month. Russia’s military budget now surpasses 6 percent of GDP, more than double the European average.
General Christopher Cavoli, commander of US forces in Europe, has warned that despite battlefield losses in Ukraine, Russia’s military is now larger than it was before the invasion began in 2022. Its forces are not only recovering but growing faster than most expected.
Furthermore, Russia has reorganised its military structure, creating special command districts around Moscow and St Petersburg. New transport routes into Belarus have been established, enabling faster troop movements to the region.
For many in Ukraine and across NATO, these developments are not merely a rehearsal. They appear to be calculated steps toward further aggression.
