Russian generals have been feeding the Kremlin dictator a steady diet of rosy forecasts about the so‑called special military operation, even as their forces struggle to advance. Military analyst Pavel Lakiychuk of the Strategy XXI think tank told Freedom TV that talk of a fresh summer offensive merely repackages the same campaign that began in 2024.
Lakiychuk explained that military planners often refer to “summer” offensives simply as the phase of more active operations, taking advantage of better weather. “Winter, summer, autumn—all seasons have their pros and cons. Yes, it is easier to attack in summer,” he said. The Russian army’s current push in Donetsk—from Chasiv Yar to Toretsk, south of Pokrovsk and the Lyman axis—is part of one long campaign, not a new onslaught.
Crucially, Lakiychuk argues, the Russian forces lack the reserves—both personnel and materiel—to launch a genuine new operation. Instead, they are draining vast human and material resources on the broad Donetsk front, with little to show for it. According to recent reports, Russian generals told the dictator that their forces had turned the tide in 2024 and would conclude the war this year. In reality, Lakiychuk warns, the army cannot sustain these claims. “They can try, but where will they find additional resources?” he asked.
He added that generals dare not admit failures, fearing reprisals from the dictator more than defeat by Ukrainian troops.
