The Russian military appears to have botched a planned launch of its RS24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missile during the early hours of 19 May in a failed attempt at nuclear muscle flexing. Ukrainian intelligence had issued warnings ahead of the launch, which was expected to occur in Russia’s Sverdlovsk region. However, no visual confirmation of the event surfaced online, suggesting a malfunction or cancellation.
Had the launch gone ahead, experts say the missile would have been visible for thousands of kilometres across Siberia and the Russian Far East. Eyewitnesses, photos, and videos would have rapidly flooded social media. The total absence of any such evidence has led Defence Express and other analysts to conclude the launch did not take place.
The reasons behind the failed or aborted launch remain unclear. Speculation ranges from a technical malfunction during pre-launch checks to a deliberate political decision to avoid public embarrassment. Russia previously suffered two failed RS24 launches in 2023, both of which veered off course. This new failure marks a continuing pattern of issues within the Kremlin’s decaying missile programme.
Military observers have linked the event to an earlier failed launch of the Oresnik intercontinental missile in May 2024, which followed a similarly disastrous test in November 2024. This latest attempt was reportedly planned from Sverdlovsk Oblast, home to the 433rd regiment of the 42nd Division under the 31st Rocket Army, an unusual choice given that tests typically take place at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome.
Ukraine’s HUR intelligence agency previously reported that the launch was meant to serve as a display of strength to intimidate both Ukraine and its Western allies in NATO and the European Union. If true, the failure to even get the missile off the ground represents a spectacular own goal for the Kremlin.
Military expert and former SBU officer Ivan Stupak commented that no evidence exists to suggest the missile was launched and destroyed mid-air. “There is no indication of an emergency launch or an explosion,” he said. “This points to either a technical glitch or a political decision to call it off.”
Stupak also pointed out the similarities with the failed Oresnik tests, where the missiles never left the ground but served propaganda purposes. “The Yars missile is becoming a media prop rather than a genuine threat. They parade it in Red Square, but whether it can even fly is another question entirely.”
Meanwhile, the failures highlight deeper issues within the Russian military industrial complex. A growing reliance on outdated doctrine, combined with a refusal to adapt to modern drone warfare, is rendering Russian strategy increasingly obsolete. Prominent Russian military bloggers have noted that generals still cling to Cold War-era tactics, ignoring how civilian-developed FPV drones have transformed the battlefield.
This technological gap is proving costly. Ukrainian drones are destroying Russian logistics convoys, fuel trucks and ammunition transports with precision and impunity. Drones operate day and night, often beyond the reach of Russian air defences, paralysing supply routes and bottlenecking troop movements. Russia’s frontline logistics are crumbling under the weight of this new reality.
In another development, Ukraine is preparing to field upgraded Belgian Leopard 1 tanks as part of an aid package funded by Belgium, valued at €1 billion (approx. £855 million). One of these tanks has been fitted with a Cockerill 3105 turret and a 105 mm high-pressure gun, capable of firing the Ukrainian-developed Falaric anti-tank missile. If combat trials are successful, Ukraine could retrofit more tanks in its arsenal with this advanced turret and missile system.
