An Azerbaijan passenger aircraft crashed in Kazakhstan, killing 38 people, raising suspicions beyond pilot error or technical failure. Azerbaijan has launched a criminal investigation into the crash amid allegations that the airline was caught in the crossfire of the Russia-Ukraine war. Some reports suggest a Russian anti-aircraft missile may have brought down the passenger aircraft, while others point to poor weather or other factors. Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed condolences over the loss of life.
The Azerbaijan Airlines plane was en route from Baku, Azerbaijan, to Grozny, Russia’s Chechen Republic. It deviated from its original course, likely due to air defense operations against Ukrainian drones in the region. Following this diversion, the plane attempted an emergency landing approximately 3 kilometers from Aktau, Kazakhstan, near the eastern bank of the Caspian Sea.
Video footage of the crash shows the jet engulfed in flames upon impact with the seashore, followed by a plume of thick black smoke, as reported by Reuters.
The aircraft carried 62 passengers and five crew members, including 42 Azerbaijani citizens, 16 Russian nationals, six Kazakhs, and three Kyrgyz nationals.
Following a course reversal and flight over the Caspian Sea, the plane crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan. 38 people tragically lost their lives, while 33 survived.
What Do the Different Sides Say on the Azerbaijan Plane Crash?
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated that the plane altered its course due to adverse weather conditions, and that the cause of the crash was under investigation.
“This is a great tragedy that has become a tremendous sorrow for the Azerbaijani people,” he said.
However, reports emerged suggesting the plane was “likely” shot down by a Russian military air defense system.
Citing the crash footage, observed aircraft damage, and recent military operations in the region, Osprey Flight Solutions, a UK-based aviation-security firm, stated that the flight “was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defense system,” according to a report by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ).
“Video of the wreckage and the circumstances around the airspace security environment in southwest Russia indicate the possibility the aircraft was hit by some form of anti-aircraft fire,” Matt Borie, the firm’s Chief Intelligence Officer, told the WSJ.
This assessment aligns with reports of drone attacks on Chechnya on the morning of December 25.
A Ukrainian official also suggested that the “plane was damaged by the Russians.”
Andriy Kovalenko, a Ukrainian national security official, stated in an X post that the plane was downed by a “Russian air-defense system.”
“Russia should have closed the airspace over Grozny but failed to do so,” Kovalenko said. “The plane was damaged by the Russians and was sent to Kazakhstan instead of being urgently landed in Grozny to save lives.”
‘Will Cooperate with the Investigation’: Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan
Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have pledged to cooperate in the investigation.
Kazakhstan’s transport prosecutor, Timur Suleimenov, addressed a briefing, stating that the plane’s black box, containing vital flight data, had been recovered and would aid in determining the cause of the crash, as reported by Interfax.
Russia’s aviation watchdog has denied claims of an attack.
“Preliminary: after a collision with birds, due to an emergency situation on board, its commander decided to ‘go’ to an alternative airfield – Aktau was chosen,” stated Russia’s aviation watchdog.
Richard Aboulafia, an analyst at consultancy AeroDynamic Advisory, also spoke to Reuters about the unlikelihood of a crash due to a bird strike.
“You can lose control of the plane, but you don’t fly wildly off course as a consequence,” he said.
Footage captured near the scene on Wednesday morning showed the aircraft engulfed in flames after its emergency landing in a field.
Some aviation experts pointed to holes in the plane’s tail section, visible in the crash footage, as further evidence supporting the possibility of a missile attack or “the work of air defenses,” as reported by The Wall Street Journal.
The footage also appears to show a large surface-to-air missile impact on the tail section of the plane, according to the Russian independent media outlet Meduza.
Meduza further stated that the damage pattern did not align with a typical bird strike, but further investigation was warranted.
Azerbaijan Airlines has issued travel warnings to its customers. On December 25, the airline suspended flights to Grozny and Makhachkala, according to TASS.
A thorough and impartial investigation will be crucial to definitively determine the cause of the crash that tragically claimed 38 lives.
