In Uganda, we are used to institutions announcing numbers that make us sigh. Fuel prices, school fees, the dollar rate e.t.c. So, when a public institution announces a number that makes people smile, it is worth stopping to ask why. That number is 22.53%, and the institution is the National Social Security Fund. It is the highest rate in the Fund’s history. It comes to about Shs5.44 trillion, up from last year’s 13.5%, and it is nearly double the industry range of 12–15%.
A figure like that does not fall from the sky. It is a message. In the market, messages have meanings. So let us ask plainly: what is NSSF telling us?
First, “your money is working.”
For years, many Ugandans treated NSSF like the uncle who keeps your money and gives you stories. You hear of land deals, parliamentary probes and towers in Lubowa, and you wonder whether your 5% is building your future or funding a drama.
This year, the Fund is saying: look at the numbers. Assets under management rose 26% to Shs32.8 trillion, and total income rose 85% to Shs6.51 trillion. Managing Director Patrick Ayota says that for every shilling spent, the Fund made over Shs29 for the member. That is not a bad day at the office.
Second, “look east, look regional.”
Where did the money come from? Interest from government bonds brought in Shs3.49 trillion. But Shs2.62 trillion was unrealised gains, mostly from revaluing listed shares as East African stock markets rallied. The Uganda Securities Exchange index rose from about 1,288 to 2,064, and Tanzania’s climbed about 72%. Ayota also credited banking, telecoms and breweries, and some of the growth came from the shilling weakening.
The signal to investors is clear: our stock exchanges are no longer sleeping. If your money sits only under the mattress or in Treasury bills, NSSF is waving a flag. The equities market is alive. Come and see.
Third, the competition should be nervous.
If you run a private pension scheme, a unit trust or a SACCO, you woke up to a problem this morning. How do you tell your client that 13% is good when the neighbor is saying 22.53%? Every fund manager in town will be asked to explain himself. Some will call it healthy competition. Others will call it painful.
Fourth, “come and save with us.”
The Fund has big ambitions. It has 3.6 million registered members, about 2.7 million of them with balances, and its strategy to 2035 targets 15 million savers. A 22.53% headline is the best advertisement money cannot buy. The market vendor in Owino, the carpenter in Katwe and the farmer in Masaka are all being told the same thing: voluntary saving is not only for people with payslips.
But read the small print.
The loudest part of any announcement is rarely the most important. Here is the part that deserves a quiet cup of tea.
Of the Shs6.51 trillion in income, Shs3.88 trillion was realised income, meaning cash actually earned. The other Shs2.62 trillion was mainly fair-value gains, which reflect changes in the value of investments rather than cash in hand.
Do the arithmetic with me. The payout is Shs5.44 trillion. The cash earned is Shs3.88 trillion. So part of what is being credited to your account is paper gain: shares that went up in value but have not been sold. Stock markets are like Kampala weather, sunshine at ten and floods by two. If markets fall next year, those gains can shrink, and next year’s rate may come down with a thud.
The honest signal, then, is that 2025/26 was an exceptional year, not a new normal. Kenya’s NSSF recently reminded its members that a high rate applies to one year and is not guaranteed. The same wisdom applies here.
Fifth, many hands are reaching for the ladle.
There is one more message, and the politicians heard it loudly. At the members’ meeting, Gen Tumukunde declared that this money must turn the economy around. Ayota listed government infrastructure projects the Fund may finance, including the Kampala-Jinja Expressway.
When a pot of Shs32.8 trillion looks this attractive, many hands reach for the ladle. Savers must keep one eye on the interest and the other on where the money goes next. Roads are good. But your pension is not a government budget line.
Bottom line
NSSF is sending a confident signal: well managed, diversified, regionally invested and ready to grow. The market should take note. Competitors should sharpen their pencils. Savers should celebrate.
But celebrate like a wise guest at a wedding. Eat the meat, dance a little, and remember that tomorrow you still have to go to work. 22.53% is good news. Keeping it that way will take discipline, transparency, and a Fund that never forgets whose money it is.
Mr. Were works to advance farming systems in Africa, based in South Africa.
By Nathan Were
Email: [email protected].
