The British military has revealed troubling findings from a secret simulation that imagined a Russian missile attack on the United Kingdom. In a virtual recreation of the first day of Russia’s full invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Royal Air Force discovered that several Russian missiles would have successfully breached Britain’s defences.
The Times newspaper reported that the Royal Air Force used the Gladiator simulation system, jointly operated with the United States military, to conduct the exercise. This high security system allows for extremely realistic simulations of modern warfare scenarios. Over 160 missiles of various types were launched against Ukraine on that day, and a similar volume and style of attack was replicated against the United Kingdom during the exercise.
Commodore Blythe Crawford, who until recently led the Royal Air Force’s Air and Space Warfare Centre, said that prior to the simulation, Britain believed itself to be largely secure. “We have long thought that our position at the western edge of Europe, with an entire continent between us and the enemy, kept us safe,” he explained. “For decades we focused on protecting our garrisons and operating from a home base, assuming most wars would be fought abroad. We must now accept that even our home base is vulnerable.”
During the simulation, the launch of Kh-101 cruise missiles from Tu-160 bombers was recreated, showing the speed and complexity of Russian missile tactics. The unsettling results made it clear that Britain must change its approach to national defence.
Following the exercise, the military began strengthening aircraft shelters and trained Royal Air Force Typhoon fighter jet pilots to land on ice in Finland, ensuring operational capability under extreme and unconventional conditions.
Reports indicate that British and NATO defences have improved since the initial simulation. Should a similar attack occur today, a greater number of incoming missiles would likely be intercepted. However, experts warn that serious vulnerabilities remain. The United Kingdom still relies heavily on its limited fleet of six Type 45 destroyers for defence against ballistic missiles. Upgrades to their air defence systems were only announced in January 2024.
Additionally, the closure of many air bases and the abandonment of protected bunkers have left Britain more exposed. Defence analysts note that Russian missile tactics have evolved, with attacks now combining missiles of various types approaching simultaneously from different directions. Russia also widely deploys long range Shahed drones, which can be launched from ships using rocket boosters, adding another layer of complexity to any potential attack.
