Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba’s recent appointment as Chief of Defence Forces (CDF) marks a notable milestone in his career trajectory. This advancement is regarded as one of the swiftest ascents within the military hierarchy in the Great Lakes region, potentially positioning him closer to the presidency.
Muhoozi’s journey in the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) began within a familial context, as his father, Gen. Yoweri Museveni, led the army during its guerrilla phase before assuming power in 1986, approximately 25 years ago.
Recent discussions revolving around President Museveni’s restructuring of the army and cabinet have notably focused on the dissolution of the Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU), a political entity formed by supporters of Muhoozi.
President Museveni’s strategic maneuvers, such as appointing Balaam Barugahara, Muhoozi’s chief political strategist, to the position of state minister for children and youth affairs, and Lillian Aber, a staunch Muhoozi supporter, as the minister for refugees, underscore the nuanced dynamics within Ugandan politics.
Muhoozi’s political ambitions have become increasingly evident following his appointment as UPDF Commander of Land Forces in 2021, manifesting through assertive social media presence and public engagements. His extensive nationwide rallies, including widely publicized birthday celebrations, have stirred considerable speculation regarding his political trajectory.
While Muhoozi’s supporters perceive him as a potential successor to his father, his recent promotion presents a dual challenge. While it provides him with significant political leverage, it may also entail constraints on his political activities, as President Museveni may anticipate a focus on military responsibilities.
The unspoken power struggle between Museveni and Muhoozi regarding the presidency in the forthcoming 2026 general elections has become increasingly apparent. Muhoozi’s establishment of the PLU, perceived as a rival entity to the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM), further underscores this tension.
However, Muhoozi’s political activities, particularly his engagements in the Greater Masaka region, signal a strategic response to potential threats posed by opposition figures like Robert Kyagulanyi, also known as Bobi Wine.
As Muhoozi navigates the intricate landscape of Ugandan politics, his new role as CDF could serve as a litmus test for both his aspirations and the extent of Museveni’s control over him. Previous instances, such as Muhoozi’s dismissal as UPDF Commander of Land Forces in 2022, underscore the potential consequences of exceeding prescribed boundaries.
Moreover, Muhoozi’s elevation to the position of CDF may subject him to heightened scrutiny, particularly in light of past allegations of human rights abuses and involvement in torture cases. The case of Kakwenza Rukirabashaija, a novelist who alleges torture at the hands of Muhoozi’s orders, exemplifies these concerns.
As Uganda approaches the 2026 elections, the interplay between political dissent and state response is likely to intensify, potentially leading to further instances of arrest, detention, and torture. Ultimately, Muhoozi’s appointment as CDF could serve as a pivotal moment in determining both his political ambitions and the trajectory of Ugandan governance.
