As of October 24, 2023, weather experts predict heavy to extremely heavy rainfall in central Uganda, as well as parts of southern Ethiopia and most regions of Somalia. This rainfall may heighten the risk of isolated flash flood occurrences in flood-prone areas, particularly in southeastern Ethiopia and southern Somalia, according to the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), which collaborates with national meteorological authorities, including the Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA).
ICPAC’s regional weather forecast indicates wetter than usual conditions expected in northern Uganda, southern Ethiopia, South Sudan, central to northern Uganda, and parts of southern Sudan, western Kenya, and central Rwanda. For the remaining regions of Uganda, moderate rainfall is anticipated.
The predicted rainfall in central Uganda and other areas is characterized as very heavy to extremely heavy and carries the potential for isolated flash floods in flood-prone areas, particularly in southeastern Ethiopia and southern Somalia.
Temperature-wise, moderate to high temperatures ranging from 20 to 32 degrees Celsius are expected in Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Somalia, Tanzania, Eritrea, eastern and northern Kenya, and eastern and southern Ethiopia. Mild temperature conditions below 20 degrees Celsius are projected for parts of central to southern Ethiopia, central to western Kenya, eastern Rwanda, Burundi, and isolated regions in southeastern Uganda and central to southern Tanzania.
The Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) reported that October is likely to see enhanced rainfall in most parts of western, central, West Nile, and Mt. Elgon, with the rest of the country experiencing moderate rainfall conditions. The rainfall pattern in September was concentrated in northern and eastern Uganda, while October is expected to bring widespread rainfall across the country.
While the expected rainfall is favorable for agriculture, supporting crop growth, it may also lead to lightening, hailstorms, strong winds, and the continued risk of floods, particularly in low-lying and urban areas with poor drainage systems. Additionally, mountainous areas face a higher risk of landslides and mudslides, and there is an elevated likelihood of water-borne diseases breaking out due to the persistent rainy conditions.
In the previous month of September, the onset of rainfall enabled crop planting, but it also resulted in flooding in various parts of Kampala and Greater Kampala, causing loss of life and property damage. An extended dry spell in western Uganda affected crop planting and pastures, creating breeding grounds for disease vectors such as mosquitoes.